“No Kings in Marion”- The Organized “No Kings” Defiance vs. The Cartel-Fueled War in L.A. Differences between Protests and the Riots of June 2025

The “No Kings” Protests: A Nation Divided

On June 14, 2025, a wave of demonstrations under the banner “No Kings” swept across the United States. This was not a spontaneous outburst but a pre-planned, ideologically driven event distinct from the reactive, localized unrest that had erupted in Los Angeles days earlier. This report first examines the “No Kings” movement, using Marion, Ohio, as a microcosm of its grassroots appeal before expanding to the national scale to detail the movement’s objectives, key events, and the starkly polarized political reactions it engendered.

No Kings Protest Marion, Ohio– America’s Strongest Town A Nationwide Role Model for Peaceful Protests!

To understand the nationwide “No Kings” movement, it is instructive to look beyond the major metropolitan centers to places like Marion, Ohio, where the national call to action resonated with local concerns about the fundamental health of American democracy.

Photos of the Marion No Kings Protest:

On Saturday, June 14, a local group called Citizens for Democracy of Marion, Ohio, organized a two-hour rally at the Marion County Courthouse.¹ Kent Halloran, a member of the organizing group, articulated a mission that was more nuanced than simple opposition to the president. “A lot of people just assume that our mission is to hate Trump, and it isn’t,” Halloran stated. “Our mission is much broader and much more. We’re not vilifying anybody. We are trying to keep our democracy and make it stronger”.¹

For the Marion organizers, the evidence of a “suffering” democracy was not found in Washington D.C., but at home. Halloran, who had recently worked at a local polling station, cited a voter turnout of approximately 7% as a primary concern. This apathy, he argued, was a core reason for the decline in democratic health. The group’s goal was to foster democracy at the “grassroots level” by encouraging citizens to become more engaged with their elected officials and informed about legislation.¹

This illustrates a dynamic at the core of the broader “No Kings” event: a national, anti-authoritarian brand served as a vehicle for a wide array of local grievances. While the national campaign focused on rejecting a “would-be king” ², the tangible motivation for organizers in towns like Marion was a perceived breakdown in basic civic participation. The national movement provided the banner and the date, but it was these pre-existing, localized concerns about civic health that mobilized participants on the ground.

Marion, Ohio: A Community Forged in Crisis Rises as a City Reborn

The Marion protest was intended to be peaceful, with organizers extending an open invitation for dialogue and debate with those who disagreed.¹ This was in the face of a local environment that was not always receptive; Halloran acknowledged that previous demonstrations had been met with hostility, including obscene gestures and verbal harassment from passing drivers. At the same time, he noted that some former Trump voters, having grown disillusioned, had begun to join their rallies, highlighting the fluid and personal nature of the political currents at play in small-town America.¹

While there was a small group that spewed vile Rhetoric after arriving late to the protest, overall the protest was a beacon for the rest of the nation on how to conduct peaceful protests.

Local hometown hero Ed Mccants, a long standing trusted ally of Marion Watch was there, the below footage is extracted from the original 1.5 hour live broadcast of the Protest.

Marion No Kings Protest Unedited Live Stream Footage:

Hometown Hero: Ed McCants – A Marion Champion Building a Stronger Town

A National Day of Defiance

The local concerns voiced in Marion were echoed across the country, amplified and unified under a sophisticated and strategically planned national campaign. The “No Kings” protests represented a mature and professionalized form of modern social movement, leveraging coordinated branding and media-savvy tactics to maximize its narrative impact.

The nationwide demonstrations were orchestrated by the “50501 Movement,” a name signifying “50 states, 50 protests, one movement”.⁴ The movement’s stated purpose was to mount a “national day of defiance” to reject what it termed “authoritarianism, billionaire-first politics and the militarization of the country’s democracy”.⁴ The “No Kings” moniker was a deliberate historical reference to the American Revolution’s opposition to monarchy, drawing a direct parallel between King George III and the Trump administration’s perceived “authoritarian excesses and corruption”.¹

The timing of the protests was a key element of their strategic design. Organizers chose June 14, a date laden with symbolic significance: it is National Flag Day, President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday, and the day he had chosen for a major military parade in Washington, D.C., to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army.¹ This allowed organizers to frame the day as a contest over national identity. They explicitly aimed to “counter” the parade, which they derided as a “costly, wasteful, and un-American birthday parade,” and to reclaim the American flag for the people, stating on their website, “The flag doesn’t belong to President Trump. It belongs to us”.⁴

The strategy to hold events “everywhere he isn’t” was a calculated media tactic designed to ensure that news coverage would not be solely dominated by the military parade in the capital.¹ The movement’s scope was vast, with organizers planning nearly 2,000 events in all 50 states, from small towns like Bellefontaine, Ohio ⁸, to major cities. Estimates suggested 50,000 participants in New York City, while the flagship rally in Philadelphia drew over 80,000.⁴ Millions were expected to participate nationwide, with solidarity events even taking place internationally, such as in Paris.⁴

Marion Watch Trainee interviewing an organizer of the protest:

While unified by the “No Kings” theme, the protests functioned as a “catch-all” platform for a wide spectrum of liberal and anti-Trump activism. The grievances voiced by participants were diverse, including the federal immigration raids, attacks on free speech, LGBTQ rights, U.S. policy toward Palestinians, and general solidarity with the civil unrest that had already begun in Los Angeles.⁶ To maintain a unified and positive public image, national organizers repeatedly emphasized that a “core principle” of all events was a commitment to non-violent action. They explicitly instructed participants to seek de-escalation in any potential confrontations and to not bring weapons of any kind to the rallies.¹ This level of coordination, branding, and strategic communication points to a sophisticated organizational structure that has learned and adapted from previous protest cycles in the social media era.

Flashpoints and Political Fallout

Despite the organizers’ commitment to non-violence, the day was marred by several serious incidents and threats, which in turn exposed a deep and dangerous rift in how the nation’s political leaders perceive and respond to civil unrest.

The most severe violence occurred in Minnesota. In what Governor Tim Walz described as a “politically motivated assassination,” two Democratic state lawmakers and their spouses were targeted in shootings. State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed, while State Senator John Hoffman and his wife were wounded and left in critical condition.⁶ The attack had a direct link to the day’s events, as authorities reported finding “No Kings” flyers and a list of other potential targets in the suspect’s vehicle.⁴ In response, officials canceled all state-sanctioned “No Kings” protests, though tens of thousands of citizens still gathered to demonstrate.⁴

In Austin, Texas, the state’s Department of Public Safety (DPS) issued a warning of a “credible threat” to kill members of the Texas Legislature who planned to attend the “No Kings” protest at the State Capitol. The threat prompted a full evacuation of the Capitol building.¹⁴ Later, a suspect described as holding “far-left political views” was arrested during a traffic stop in La Grange, 65 miles from Austin.¹⁵

Deadly Merchant: The little known Mexican Cartel-Chinese Connections

Other flashpoints, though less severe, occurred across the country. Clashes between police and protesters were reported in Los Angeles and Portland, where law enforcement deployed smoke, tear gas, and other projectiles.⁴ A shooting during a march in Salt Lake City left one person critically injured.¹⁷ In Culpepper, Virginia, a man was charged with reckless driving after intentionally accelerating his SUV into a crowd of protesters.¹⁷ In Chicago, a largely peaceful protest of an estimated 15,000 people resulted in one arrest after an officer was struck.²⁰

The political response to the protests was sharply divided along partisan lines, revealing a breakdown in any shared national consensus on managing dissent. Republican governors in states like Virginia, Texas, Missouri, and Nebraska took a pre-emptive, hardline stance, mobilizing National Guard troops before the protests began and vowing “zero tolerance” for any violence or disruption.⁴ Florida Governor Ron DeSantis issued a stern warning to those planning to protest at Mar-a-Lago that “the line is very clear” and should not be crossed.⁴ This posture frames protest as an inherent security threat to be managed with a show of force.

In contrast, Democratic leaders generally led their public statements by emphasizing the constitutional right to peaceful protest, followed by condemnations of potential violence. Governors in Maryland, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, as well as senators in Connecticut, issued statements that framed their primary role as protecting the right to assemble while ensuring public safety.⁴ This approach frames protest as a right to be facilitated, with law enforcement’s role being to stop illegal acts, not to deter the assembly itself.

This divergence has significant implications. A citizen’s experience at a protest on June 14 could have been radically different depending on the political affiliation of their state’s governor, driven by ideology rather than a uniform standard of public safety. This deepening of political polarization into the very mechanics of state governance and law enforcement represents a troubling trend for the nation’s civic fabric.

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The Los Angeles Riots: An Investigation into Cause and Effect

Contemporaneous with the planned “No Kings” demonstrations, the city of Los Angeles was engulfed in a wave of civil unrest with a distinct and separate catalyst: a series of large-scale federal law enforcement raids targeting transnational criminal organizations. This section provides an in-depth investigation into these events, detailing the operations that precipitated the riots, profiling the individuals arrested, tracing the escalation of violence, and analyzing the controversial federal response.

The Pretext: Operation Take Back America

The civil unrest that began in Los Angeles on June 6, 2025, was a direct reaction to a series of raids conducted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and a coalition of federal law enforcement agencies.²² These were not random immigration sweeps but were framed by the federal government as part of a nationwide initiative called “Operation Take Back America,” which aimed to “achieve the total elimination of cartels and transnational criminal organizations (TCOs)”.²³

Deadly Merchant Part II: Ohio Connections to Mexican Cartels and International Networks (2014-April 2025)

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) stated they were serving lawful warrants on individuals with alleged connections to criminal enterprises, including “vicious illegal alien criminals including gang members, drug traffickers and those with a history of assault”.²⁵ The operation was a multi-agency effort involving Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the FBI, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).²²

However, a critical disconnect immediately formed between the government’s official narrative of targeting dangerous criminals and the community’s perception of the events. The raids took place in highly visible, public locations, including a Home Depot and garment factories in the city’s Fashion District.²² To residents and observers, these actions looked less like surgical strikes against cartel kingpins and more like an indiscriminate attack on the broader immigrant community. This schism was succinctly captured by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who asked, “How did we get from gang members to Home Depot?”.²⁸

This gap between the official justification and the public’s reality was the primary fuel for the initial protests. The federal government’s strategy appeared to be a deliberate conflation of immigration enforcement with national security operations. By branding the targets of immigration raids as cartel-affiliated criminals, the administration sought to legitimize a more aggressive and militarized enforcement posture. The consequence, whether intended or not, was the creation of a volatile and chaotic environment where the lines between apprehending a wanted felon and detaining an undocumented day laborer became dangerously blurred in the public eye, sparking the outrage that would soon boil over into widespread unrest.

Case Files: The Targets of the Federal Raids

The federal law enforcement actions that precipitated the Los Angeles riots were not a monolithic event but the culmination of multiple, long-running investigations into diverse and sophisticated criminal networks. An examination of the specific indictments and arrests in the weeks prior reveals a complex picture of operations targeting Mexican drug cartels, a powerful Eurasian TCO, and modern, tech-enabled domestic drug rings. The public-facing narrative of “ICE raids” significantly oversimplified this multi-faceted takedown of organized crime.

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The following table provides a summary of the key criminal enterprises and individuals targeted by federal law enforcement in the Los Angeles area in the weeks leading up to the June 2025 riots.

Case Name / Key Individual(s)	Alleged Affiliation / Criminal Enterprise	Key Alleged Crimes	Lead Investigating Agencies	Status (as of June 2025)
Jorge H. Perez Cazares	Sinaloa Cartel	International Cocaine Trafficking	FBI, DEA	Sentenced to 232 months
Ralph Olarte & Humberto Lopez Belmonte	Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)	International Smuggling, Money Laundering, Bribery	HSI, CBP, IRS, DEA	Indicted, Arrested
Ara Artuni & Robert Amiryan	Armenian Organized Crime (Russian Mafia-affiliated)	Attempted Murder, Kidnapping, Cargo Theft ($83M+), Fraud	LAPD, HSI, ATF, IRS	Arrested, Charged
Jesse Lopez-Martinez, Carlos Mendoza Jr., et al.	Domestic Narcotics Trafficking Ring	Methamphetamine, Fentanyl, and Cocaine Distribution	DEA, HSI, ATF	Indicted, Arrested
Davit Avalyan, Hrant Gevorgyan, et al.	Darknet Drug Distribution Network (“JCODE”)	Darknet Sales of Cocaine, Methamphetamine, MDMA	FBI, DEA, USPIS, IRS	Indicted, Arrested

The Sinaloa Cartel Connection: The Case of Jorge Humberto Perez Cazares

Jorge Humberto Perez Cazares, a 41-year-old from Sinaloa, Mexico, also known as “Cadete,” was described by the Department of Justice as a “major Mexican narcotrafficker” and a leader within a TCO responsible for shipping multi-ton quantities of cocaine into Mexico for distribution in Los Angeles. He was identified as working with a close affiliate of a co-leader of the Sinaloa Cartel.²⁴

His criminal history dates back years. In February 2014, a U.S. operation targeting his L.A. distribution network seized $1.4 million in cash and over 70 kilograms of cocaine. Shortly thereafter, he was arrested in Guatemala with 514 kilograms of cocaine. After another arrest in Mexico in 2016 on a U.S. warrant, he was finally extradited to the United States on July 30, 2021.²⁴ In April 2024, Perez Cazares pleaded guilty to conspiracy to import five kilograms or more of cocaine. On June 9, 2025, as protests raged in Los Angeles, he was sentenced to 232 months in federal prison. The case was prosecuted by Trial Attorney Douglas Meisel of the Criminal Division’s Narcotic and Dangerous Drug Section, following an investigation led by the FBI with assistance from the DEA.²⁴

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The CJNG Connection: The Case of Ralph Olarte & Humberto Lopez Belmonte

In late May 2025, federal authorities arrested Ralph Olarte, the 55-year-old CFO of Sport LA Inc., and Humberto Lopez Belmonte, the company’s 53-year-old CEO. Olarte is a U.S. citizen from Glendale, while Lopez Belmonte is a citizen of Mexico.²⁹ They were charged in a 22-count indictment with running a massive, decade-long smuggling operation (2013-2024) that moved billions of dollars in goods into Mexico, evading hundreds of millions in customs duties. The indictment explicitly alleges the scheme involved paying kickbacks to the

Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) for operational protection and bribing Mexican customs officials.²⁹

The indictment, returned on April 30, 2025, includes charges of conspiracy to smuggle, wire fraud, and multiple counts of money laundering.²⁹ Following his arrest, Lopez Belmonte pleaded not guilty and was released on a $100,000 bond, with a trial date set for July 21, 2025. His attorney, Mark Werksman, stated that his client “did nothing wrong”.²⁹ Olarte was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport and was pending arraignment.²⁹ The case is being prosecuted by the U.S. Attorney’s Transnational Organized Crime Section. While research identified prior, separate criminal cases for individuals named Humberto Lopez in California and Texas, there is no direct evidence in the available record to confirm these individuals are the same person as Humberto Lopez Belmonte.³⁴

The Armenian Syndicates: The Case of Ara Artuni & Robert Amiryan

On May 20, 2025, as part of “Operation Take Back America,” federal authorities arrested 13 alleged members of rival factions of a Russian mafia-affiliated TCO known as “Armenian Organized Crime”.²³ The groups were allegedly engaged in a violent power struggle for control of the San Fernando Valley.

The two rival leaders, or avtoritet (authorities), were identified as Ara Artuni, 41, of Porter Ranch, and Robert Amiryan, 46, of Hollywood.²³ Artuni, also known as “Rubo Fish,” was charged with attempted murder in aid of racketeering for allegedly ordering a hit on Amiryan in the summer of 2023. His criminal enterprise is also accused of stealing over $83 million in goods from Amazon in a sophisticated cargo theft scheme, alongside bank and wire fraud.²³ In retaliation, Amiryan, known as “Aro,” was charged with kidnapping for allegedly conspiring to kidnap and torture one of Artuni’s associates in June 2023.²³

Court records show a criminal complaint (Case No. 2:25-mj-02952) was filed against Artuni on May 15, 2025, in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, with a detention hearing scheduled for May 28.³⁹ His attorney is listed as Clauditte Sardarian.³⁹ A separate complaint (Case No. 2:25-mj-02937, later 2:25-cr-00433) was filed against Amiryan, who was arrested on May 20 and ordered temporarily detained. His attorney is Melanie Killedjian.⁴¹ The cases are being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorneys Lyndsi Allsop and Kenneth R. Carbajal.²³

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Major Narcotics Trafficking Rings

Alongside the operations against major TCOs, federal agencies also dismantled significant domestic drug rings.

In one DEA-led operation, four men were arrested on May 28, 2025, for trafficking vast quantities of narcotics from a safehouse in Compton. The defendants are Jesse “Gordo” Lopez-Martinez, 27; Carlos “Los” Mendoza Jr., 32; Hector Merced Parra Jr., 25; and Juan Francisco “Panchito” Felix Salazar, 28.²⁷ Authorities seized over 1,700 pounds of methamphetamine, 257 pounds of fentanyl powder, 360,000 counterfeit fentanyl pills, and over $1.6 million in cash.²⁷ Carlos Mendoza Jr. has a prior felony drug transportation conviction from 2012, making him a felon in possession of a firearm.²⁷ All four pleaded not guilty, with a trial date set for July 21, 2025. Lopez-Martinez and Mendoza were ordered jailed without bond.²⁷

In a separate “JCODE” (Joint Criminal Opioid Darknet Enforcement) operation, four men from the Glendale and Sherman Oaks areas were arrested in April 2025 for running a prolific drug distribution network on the darknet. Davit Avalyan, 35; Hrant Gevorgyan, 35; Hayk Grigoryan, 35; and Gurgen Nersesyan, 43, allegedly used vendor names like “JoyInc” to sell cocaine, meth, and other drugs for cryptocurrency from 2018 to 2025.⁴⁵ They pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 3, 2025.⁴⁵

From Protest to Riot: The Eruption in Los Angeles

The federal raids of June 6 acted as a detonator in the tense political environment of Los Angeles. The arrest of a prominent and respected labor leader, David Huerta, served as a specific accelerant, transforming a localized protest against federal actions into a national political firestorm that legitimized the protesters’ cause in the eyes of the Democratic establishment and fueled a cycle of confrontation.

A timeline of the key events reveals a rapid escalation:

• June 6: Federal raids are conducted across L.A. David Huerta, President of SEIU California, is arrested for “felony conspiracy to impede an officer” while protesting.²² His arrest becomes an immediate rallying cry. By evening, protests outside the Metropolitan Detention Center are declared an unlawful assembly by the LAPD, which uses tear gas and less-lethal munitions after objects are thrown at officers.²²
• June 7: Clashes spread to the neighboring cities of Paramount and Compton.²² In a dramatic escalation, President Trump federalizes the California National Guard under Title 10 authority, ordering 2,000 troops to Los Angeles without the consent of the governor.²²
• June 8: National Guard troops arrive in downtown L.A..⁴⁷ During demonstrations, protesters block the major 101 Freeway and set fire to several autonomous Waymo vehicles, creating iconic images of the unrest.⁴⁶
• June 9: The Trump administration doubles down, authorizing an additional 2,000 Guard members and activating 700 U.S. Marines for domestic deployment.²² Governor Gavin Newsom files a lawsuit challenging the legality of the federal troop deployment.⁴⁹ David Huerta is released on a $50,000 bond.⁴⁶
• June 10: Citing the need to “stop the vandalism” and “looting,” LA Mayor Karen Bass declares a local state of emergency and imposes a nighttime curfew on parts of downtown Los Angeles.⁴⁷
• June 13: Approximately 200 U.S. Marines arrive and assume guard duties at the Wilshire Federal Building.⁵⁰ They conduct their first known detention of a civilian, who had inadvertently walked onto the property and was later released without charges.⁵³

The unrest produced significant human and material costs, summarized below.

Category	Statistical Detail	Source(s)
Total Arrests (Protesters/Civilians)	Over 520 individuals were arrested or detained.	22
Primary Arrest Charges	The vast majority of arrests were for “failing to disperse.” A smaller number faced more serious charges including assault with a deadly weapon, looting, vandalism, and attempted murder (for throwing a Molotov cocktail).	48
Law Enforcement Injuries	At least 7 LAPD officers and nearly a dozen L.A. County Sheriff’s deputies were injured. Injuries were caused by thrown rocks, Molotov cocktails, and high-grade pyrotechnics.	48
Civilian/Protester Injuries	At least 10 protesters were reported injured.	22
Property Damage	Widespread vandalism, graffiti, and looting of businesses. Several self-driving cars were set on fire. No official monetary damage estimate is available, but the impact on small businesses was described as “horrific.”	47

The key figures in this conflict represented the deep divisions between local, state, and federal governance. Mayor Bass and Governor Newsom consistently condemned the federal response as an “abuse of power” and an “intentional effort to sow chaos”.⁴⁷ On the federal side, President Trump aggressively defended the deployment, calling protesters “animals” ⁵⁸, while DHS Secretary Kristi Noem referred to Los Angeles as a “city of criminals”.⁴⁷ The arrest of David Huerta, a respected labor leader once honored by the Obama White House, provided a sympathetic face to the protesters’ cause, making it difficult to dismiss all demonstrators as a lawless mob and galvanizing mainstream opposition to the federal actions.⁴⁶

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The Legal Framework of Domestic Unrest

The deployment of federal troops in Los Angeles brought to the forefront a complex and contentious area of U.S. law governing the use of the military on American soil. Understanding the distinction between protest and riot, and the statutes that limit or empower a president to deploy military force, is essential to analyzing the legality of the federal response.

Defining the Line: Protest vs. Riot

In the United States, the right to peaceful protest is a cornerstone of democracy, protected by the First Amendment. A protest is generally understood as an organized, public demonstration of disapproval of a government policy or action.⁶¹ It is a non-violent act of civil resistance.⁶³

A riot, by contrast, is by definition a crime. The federal Anti-Riot Act of 1968 defines a riot as a public disturbance involving “an act or acts of violence by one or more persons part of an assemblage of three or more persons,” which constitutes a clear and present danger of, or results in, damage or injury to property or people.⁶¹ The critical distinction is the presence of violence. A protest becomes a riot at the moment peaceful demonstration gives way to the destruction of property, assault, or the use of weapons. Legally, a single act of violence by one or more individuals within a group of three or more can be sufficient for law enforcement, typically a ranking police official on the scene, to declare the entire assembly a riot and order its dispersal.⁶²

The President’s Power: The Insurrection Act and Posse Comitatus

The default legal principle governing the domestic use of the military is the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878. This law makes it a felony for federal military forces, such as the Army and Marines, to be used for civilian law enforcement purposes within the United States, unless expressly authorized by the Constitution or an act of Congress. The law reflects a deep-rooted American tradition of separating military power from domestic policing.⁶⁴

The most significant exception to Posse Comitatus is the Insurrection Act of 1807. This powerful and rarely used law grants the President the emergency authority to deploy U.S. troops on American soil to suppress an insurrection, rebellion, or domestic violence, or to enforce federal laws that are being obstructed.⁶⁵ The Act can be invoked at a state’s request, or, more controversially, without a state’s consent to enforce federal law (under Section 252) or to protect constitutional rights when state authorities are deemed unable or unwilling to do so (under Section 253).⁶⁶

The legal controversy in Los Angeles stemmed from the administration’s decision to bypass a formal declaration under the Insurrection Act. President Trump did not officially invoke the Act.⁶⁴ Instead, he used two other legal justifications. First, he federalized the California National Guard under Title 10 of the U.S. Code, citing a “rebellion against the authority of the Government,” language that mirrors the Insurrection Act’s triggers.⁶⁹ Second, he deployed the active-duty Marines under a theory of the president’s inherent constitutional power to protect federal property and functions, arguing this was not “law enforcement” and therefore did not violate Posse Comitatus.⁶⁴

This legal strategy was described by legal experts at institutions like the Brennan Center for Justice and American Oversight as a dangerous and dubious exercise of power.⁶⁹ They argued that the situation in Los Angeles did not meet the historically high bar for such a deployment—a “complete breakdown” of state and local law enforcement—and that the administration was effectively seeking an Insurrection Act-like result without incurring the political weight of its formal invocation. This created a legal “gray zone,” deliberately stress-testing the limits of executive power and potentially setting a new, lower-threshold precedent for the militarization of domestic civil unrest.

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Analytical Assessment of Potential Cartel Influence

A central question arising from the Los Angeles riots is the extent to which Mexican drug cartels and other TCOs were involved in orchestrating the violence. Based on available open-source information, it is not possible to calculate a quantitative “statistical probability” of such involvement, as this would require access to classified intelligence. However, a qualitative analysis of the likelihood and nature of that influence can be conducted by weighing competing hypotheses.

The first hypothesis is that of Direct Orchestration, where cartels planned and executed the riots as a direct response to the federal crackdown. The most compelling evidence for this view is the timing: the riots erupted immediately after federal operations disrupted major TCOs with explicit links to the Sinaloa and CJNG cartels.²² These organizations have a well-documented history of using violence to retaliate against law enforcement and protect their operations.⁷² The violence in L.A., particularly the targeting of police, served the cartels’ strategic interest in creating a hostile environment for federal agents. However, there is no direct public evidence of a top-down command structure from cartel leadership to the rioters. Furthermore, the presence of many legitimate activist groups and citizens motivated by genuine outrage suggests the unrest was not entirely manufactured.²²

The second hypothesis is that of Organic Unrest, where the riots were a purely spontaneous community reaction to perceived government overreach. Evidence for this includes the widespread perception that the raids were an attack on the entire immigrant community, not just criminals.²⁸ The arrest of the respected labor leader David Huerta provided a powerful and authentic catalyst for mainstream anger.⁴⁶ The involvement of unions, faith leaders, and established advocacy groups points to a genuine grassroots mobilization.²² The evidence against this being the sole explanation is the scale and coordination of the violence, including the use of Molotov cocktails and organized looting, which suggest a degree of intent beyond that of a typical protest.⁴⁸

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The most plausible explanation lies between these two poles, in a symbiotic and opportunistic relationship. The federal raids provided the spark that ignited the pre-existing tinder of social and political grievance. The initial protests were organized by genuine community and activist groups. However, as the crowds grew and the situation escalated, criminal elements—including street-level actors connected to the disrupted TCOs, professional agitators, and opportunistic looters—almost certainly infiltrated and exploited the chaos. These groups had a vested, concurrent interest in escalating the violence to disrupt law enforcement operations, intimidate authorities, and send a message of deterrence. Therefore, it is highly likely that cartel-affiliated elements were involved in and benefited from the riots. This involvement was likely not a matter of a cartel leader in Mexico City directly orchestrating the entire event from start to finish. Rather, it was a decentralized, opportunistic exploitation of a crisis that was already underway. The relationship was parasitic: the riots likely would not have occurred without the initial, organic public outrage, and the violence likely would not have reached such a destructive pitch without the influence and participation of criminal actors seeking to protect their illicit enterprises. This model aligns with the academic understanding of modern cartel operations, which often involve leveraging and manipulating local conditions rather than exercising direct, overt control of social movements.⁷²

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Works cited

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